ABSTRACT
Europe has experienced a large COVID-19 wave caused by the Delta variant in winter 2021/22. Using mathematical models applied to Metropolitan France, we find that boosters administered to ≥â¯65, ≥â¯50 or ≥â¯18 year-olds may reduce the hospitalisation peak by 25%, 36% and 43% respectively, with a delay of 5 months between second and third dose. A 10% reduction in transmission rates might further reduce it by 41%, indicating that even small increases in protective behaviours may be critical to mitigate the wave.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19 , Immunization, Secondary , COVID-19/prevention & control , France/epidemiology , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons , VaccinationABSTRACT
Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia (TTS) has been identified as a rare adverse event following COVID-19 vaccination with Vaxzevria. We modelled the benefits and risks of Vaxzevria distribution from May to September 2021 in metropolitan France where other vaccines are available, considering French hospitalisation data and European data on TTS. Across different scenarios, benefits of Vaxzevria distribution in people 55 years and older exceeded the risk of death from COVID-19. In young adults, risks were at least of similar magnitude as benefits.